Friday, February 11, 2011

The Power of Revolution

Mubarack is out and the great unknown not only faces Egypt but the Arab world as well.  Some experts want to look at the Iranian revolution as a guidepost to what's happened in Egypt.  Conservative commentators are blaming President Obama for not doing more to save Mubarack.  They see this as the opening gambit in some great Muslim revolution that will sweep across the Middle East and eventually the rest of the world.

I'm not so sure about that.   I think this is more akin to what happened when the Berlin Wall fell.  What happened on the streets of Cairo could spread across the Middle East just like the events in Berlin spread across Eastern Europe.  If I were the King of Jordan or Saudi Arabia or even Syria's President Assad, I'd be plenty worried.  But I think the fallout will be more like what we saw when the Soviet Empire fell apart than what we happened when the Ayatollah's took control of Iran. 

Doubtless Islamic radicals will try to take advantage of this regime change.  It doesn't bode well for Israel when its only Arab "friend" is dealing with a revolution.  But I don't think the Arab world wants war.  I think they want democracy or something as close as they can get to it.  Unfortunately I don't think Egypt is going to see great reform or anything close to freedom as we know it in the United States.  I suspect some form of strong man rule will eventually take hold there.  Regardless, revolution is in the air and the next two to three weeks could prove very profound.

1 comment:

  1. This is one of those times in my life when I'm watching the news and I stop and tell myself, "Self, you are witnessing important history in the making."